Even though you've been downrated into oblivion, I concur that your analysis is at least partially right. The free copy of D3 and MoP beta opt-in, plus the attractive pricing of the annual pass, was certainly a deterrent to the subscription decline.

That being said, we're probably not giving enough credit to the effect that the Annual Pass had; sub numbers may have been lower had it not been for this because the incentive to sign up was incredibly attractive, and placed at the right time so that consumers didn't have to think about the upcoming MMOs; the ultimate 'no-brainer' purchase for any WoW fan. It was a perfectly delivered blow timed so that it had maximum financial impact. The interesting call will be next year's investor call in February, when the majority of the Annual Pass subscribers will be forced with the decision of whether to renew or not.

The Annual Pass was a brilliant strategic move that not only helped staunch the decline, but may very well put WoW in the positive sub loss/gain numbers on the next call.