Dec 2nd 2011 4:03PM My first character was an undead warlock and I can remember two n00b moments that stick out
1.) On my first ever dungeon run of Wailing Caverns everyone was rolling for a chest and I had no idea what they were doing so I just opened the chest and went on my merry way.
2.) I had no concept of mana efficiency and assumed it was status quo to use hardly any mana so my lock "rotation" for the first 50 levels was Send in VW to tank>Wand to death
Dec 22nd 2009 3:13PM assuming ties aren't wins, I got an expected winng roll value of 81.82933292
So the moral of the story is load your dice hax to be about 85 so as to win a lot but not raise suspicion ;-)
Dec 22nd 2009 3:06PM Here is the solution I came up with (I know im late to the party, but Im a stats nerd).
Assumptions: Tie rolls count as "winning rolls", WOW rolls are discrete and completely random
List the values 1-100
use the formula (5c5+5c4*(x-1)^1+5c3*(x-1)^2+5c2*(x-1)^3+5c1*(x-1)^4)/100^5
(note: 5c5 is my notation for "5 choose 5" combinations, think Pascal's Triangle)
the 5c5 represents a 5-way tie
the 5c4*(x-1)^1 represents a 4-way tie with one loser rolling some number less than the winning roll with x-1 possibilities (i.e. 99 ways to lose to a 100, uplifting isn't it)
the 5c3 is 3 way tie, 2 losers rolling a random number each with x-1 possible outcomes
the 5c2 is 2 way tie, 3 losers
the 5c1 is one winner, 4 losers
sum up all those and divide by the total number of possible rolls (100 to the fifth power assuming no one is /roll 1 9000ing)
Then you mulitiple the value X by the probability you just calculated, add them all up and you get your expected value
I got 83.82916675 for 5 mans. Looks pretty close to what everyone else got. Math nerds unite!
You can repeat this with 10 man and 25 man, but I would have to calculate 25 way ties, 24 way ties, 23 way ties, etc and I'm only on lunch break.
QE F'n D