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Posts with tag Drop-Rates

Breakfast Topic: Do you contribute to your favorite WoW database site?

Wowhead Uploader
You know that site you use every day to learn about quests and where things drop? All of that data -- who drops what, the percentages, the map locations -- comes from players who take the time to collect it and contribute. The more people who contribute, the more accurate the data. These lightweight addons collect the pertinent information in the background and upload when you exit the game.
  • The Wowhead Client will let you collect data for Wowhead and upload it at your convenience
  • The WoWDB Profiler addon works in conjunction with the Curse Client to contribute to WoWDB
Do you contribute to WoW database sites?
Yes450 (20.8%)
No1415 (65.5%)
I'm going to start295 (13.7%)

Filed under: Breakfast Topics

Should green fire be prestigious?

Blood Pact Should green fire be prestigious MON
Every week, WoW Insider brings you Blood Pact for affliction, demonology, and destruction warlocks. This week, Megan O'Neill wishes the mages would stop sending out the bad voodoo vibes to everything she owns so she can buy new fun things for her birthday instead of old replacements.

There's plenty to look for through the datamining, but the question on everyone's mind is, "How do I start the questline?" Trust me, when someone finds out, I'm sure the internet will explode about it. It'll probably be on a Monday, during my other job's hours, and right after this column posts, knowing my luck.

But before I get into an all-out walkthrough of the questline, I want to discuss one thing: does green fire have to be exclusive? Is exclusivity required for meaningfulness?

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Filed under: Warlock, (Warlock) Blood Pact, Mists of Pandaria

[1.Local]: What alliances we have

Reader comments -- ahh, yes, the juicy goodness following a meaty post. [1.Local] ducks past the swinging doors to see what readers have been chatting about in the back room over the past week.

Tomorrow's the Big Day for one of WoW.com's own. Join us in congratulating Michael Gray and his bride Katherine on their marriage. It seems that this couple has been treading on geeky ground from the very start. Now, Michael has given us permission to share excerpts from the ceremony with the gang at [1.Local] here today. We've tucked in the wedding benediction at the end of this week's column ... Best wishes to the happy couple!

And now, on to the week's comment highlights.

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Filed under: Analysis / Opinion, WoW Social Conventions, Virtual selves, Features, Humor, [1.Local], Warcraft Movie

Drop chance probability

Probability is a greatly misunderstood area of math that impacts most areas of WoW gameplay, but none so intensely debated as drop chances. You don't have to be a math expert to want to know how many times you need to kill a boss to have even odds of seeing that drop you're seeking. Unfortunately everyone seems to be saying something different about how probability works.

If you hope to get the rare Deathcharger's Reins mount from Baron Rivendare for example, we know that it has a 1% drop chance. That means that every time you kill the Black Baron you have a 1% chance of getting the mount. 1% on the first kill, and 1% on the 100th kill. However, over the course of 100 kills, you have a much higher probability of getting the mount. But not 100%. Never 100%.

Join me after the cut where we take a friendly and gentle look at understanding probability, and give you a cool tool to automatically calculate drop probabilities for you!

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Filed under: Items, Instances, Raiding

Progressive drop rates

Jeff Kaplan has said some interesting things at this year's GDC (expect a full account from us soon). One of them concerned a new technology that debuted in Wrath of the Lich King which I, for one, had not heard of before: progressive drop rates for quest items.

Pre-Wrath, if you're on a collection quest, whatever you're trying to collect will drop at a constant rate (35% was apparently the standard). Overall, this averages to a predictable amount of kills per quest. But probability being the way it is, it was altogether possible to have terrible luck and have to kill 100 foozles to get your four gizmos, or to have great luck and get your gizmos in only four kills. It was the bad streaks that the devs were particularly concerned about, as those are very memorable and never fun.

In Wrath, according to Kaplan, drop rates for quest items are progressive - the more foozles you kill, the higher chance each one has to drop a gizmo. The standard quest item drop rate has been raised to 45%, and each kill you make raises that drop rate by some amount. Kaplan said that it can eventually reach 100%, at which point every kill would drop your item. This puts a hard cap on just how frustrating a collection quest can be. Seems like a smart idea to me. I hadn't really noticed Wrath collection quests being easier, but then, I wouldn't - I simply wouldn't have bad-luck streaks, the absence of which might not be easy to notice.

[via Shacknews]

Filed under: Items, Quests

You may be a Love Fool after all

ButterflySha@flickr, wall of candy hearts
If you played WoW at all during the Love is in the Air holiday event that ran in early February, then you surely heard the moaning about the meta achievement, Fool For Love, which grants the title, Love Fool.

Whether you wanted to celebrate this month or not, anyone seeking to complete their long and strange trip and acquire the coveted Violet Proto-Drake, had to be a Fool For Love.

One of the requirements was to complete the achievement, Be Mine, which had players running back to old world capital cities, dousing themselves in smelly concoctions, and begging the guards and citizens not to break their hearts.

This gave us one chance per hour at obtaining the elusive Bag of Candies that would allow players ten chances to create, ideally, eight unique candies. The drop rate for the bag was so poor and the holiday so short that people begged Blizzard to improve their chances.

While the drop rate for the bag was increased at the last minute, many people who put in a superb effort still did not acquire their title.

Blizzard has since crunched the numbers, and some great news was handed down by Zarhym that should put everyone's mind at rest. While the Be Mine achievement is not being removed as a requirement for completion of the meta achievement, instead of needing all eight candies, you will only need to have obtained six!

Not only that, but you won't have to wait until next year. As of patch 3.1, all you will need to do is login to be granted your achievement, as well as your title, as long as you had made at least six unique candies.

Many players would still like to see that particular achievement removed from the meta entirely, but Blizzard stands firm that the point of What a Long, Strange Trip it's Been and its reward is to be something that only a dedicated few will earn each year. They aren't about to make it too easy.

If you missed this requirement, will you be getting your title on patch day, or are you still feeling disgruntled?

Filed under: Patches, Analysis / Opinion, Events, Blizzard, News items, Achievements

Some remarks on drop rates


I'm going to keep this relatively short, because a full discussion of probability could fill several college semesters. However, there is one misconception that some WoW players have that has been bugging me lately.

Let's say you read that Shattered Sun Supplies have a 10% chance to contain a Badge of Justice, and, excited, you go out and do enough dailies get 10 Shattered Sun Supplies. You open them all and find not a single Badge, or you find five badges. Do either of these outcomes mean the 10% drop rate is wrong? No! They do not! All a 10% drop rate means is that for each Supplies, there is a 10% chance that it contains a Badge. Random events have no memory, so no matter how many badges you get in the first nine Supplies, your chance to get a Badge in the tenth Supplies is still 10%. The traditional analogy is that if you flip a coin nine times and get heads each time, the chance of getting heads on the next flip is still 50%.

Now it is true that you will probably get a Badge in ten Supplies if the drop rate is 10%. If you're interested in how likely it is, here's the calculation to do. The chance of not getting a Badge in one Supplies is (100% - 10%) = 90%, or 0.9. Raise that to the tenth power, for your ten independent Supplies-opening events, and you get the chance of, ten times out of ten, not getting a Badge: 0.9^10 = 0.349, about 35%. So in fact, out of ten Supplies, you will get a badge (100% - 35%) = 65% of the time, about two thirds.

TL;DR version: A drop rate is a probability, not a guarantee.

Filed under: Analysis / Opinion

Drop rates surface on 2.4 items and substances


Patch 2.4 has been upon as for almost a week now, and that's long enough for Wowhead to have collected reliable data on some of the interesting new things in the patch. Here's what I've noticed, leading off with what is (to my mind) the most interesting piece of information:
I guess that's it, really; the numbers on Bash'ir Phasing Device, Nether Residue, and Sunfury Attack Plans are hopelessly diluted by old and non-quest data, so we may never know true drop rates for those. Still, I'm glad to know about that 10% chance for a Badge. It's lower than I'd thought it would be, but I can understand why they would want to make it take a while for solo-only players to earn awesome epics.

For comparison, I checked WOWDB and Thottbot. WOWDB gave 9.2% for the Badge, which is similar, and 98% (!) on the Mana Remnants, which is clearly wrong. Thottbot says 9% on the Badge, and 27% on the Remnants.

Filed under: Patches, Items, Quests

Insider Trader: Guide to farming cloth

Cloth is like the gathering profession for everyone. You don't have to pay to pick it up, and there are no skills to level. Because of the sheer number of tailors, the amount of cloth tailoring eats up (not to mention first aid), cloth gathering can be a lucrative pass-time. Failing that, it can provide for your own cloth needs without having to hit the auction house.

This week's Insider Trader will be going in-depth into the world of farming for cloth, and tackling the following issues:
  • The best areas to farm the cloth you need.
  • How to alleviate some of the boredom.
  • Ways to make the most out of your farming stints.
We will also be covering cloth that can be obtained by even level ones, and not just level 70s, as well as information about what it is used for, and who is going to want it.
  • Linen cloth. (lvl 1-15)
  • Wool cloth. (lvl 14-30)
  • Silk cloth. (lvl 28-40)
  • Mageweave cloth. (lvl 38-50)
  • Runecloth. (lvl 50-62)
  • Netherweave cloth. (lvl 58-70+)
  • Felcloth. (lvl 50-60).
Whether your career hinges on stacks of cloth or you're looking to finance your other exploits, you won't want to miss this week's guide.

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Filed under: Tailoring, Items, Tips, Economy, Features, Guides, Making money, Insider Trader (Professions)

Forum post of the day: Really bad quests

Most of us have at least a couple of alt projects that we're working on. Once you've leveled to seventy you get a feeling for which quests are a breeze and which ones are painful. Arross of Thorium brotherhood started a thread entitled Really bad quests where players listed their least favorite quests. Some honorable mentions include:

  • Arross of Thorium. "I have to say so far the worst quest I have ever had was Super Sticky in Un'goro Crater. The drop rate isn't bad, it's horrible."
  • Shrosarias of Burning Blade, "Any quests having to do with murloc. Murlocs = evil."
  • Ashcroft of Smolderthorn, "Zeth'Gor Must Burn! had me tearing my hair out by the roots. It was so very demoralizing to go from BG-topper to single-quest-dyer in one fell swoop."
  • Arteree of Rivendare, "Almost every quest in Westfall."
  • Etamalgren, "imo, any escort quests are the worst quests overall, except for the skettis daily and the nagrand escort."

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Filed under: Analysis / Opinion, Quests, Forums

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