Posts with tag guesses

Adam did post this graph (made by Saiforune a.k.a. reader Ian over the weekend after I threw up a request on Friday) already, but considering how much info is in here, and how much work Ian put into it, I figured it deserved another look now that the contest is officially closed. So what we've got here is a standard bar graph, marking out how many people guessed which day that patch 2.4 would go to the live realms. The range of choices is pretty amazing -- the earliest people expected the patch to go up was today, March 3rd (sorry guys, I'm guessing you didn't win), and at least two people think we'll see the patch in the second half of the year (I doubt the patch will drop after October, but I guess we'll see).

As you might have guessed, Tuesdays got the most guesses (since that's usually when Blizzard updates the realms), and Tuesday, March 18th got the most guesses overall. Adam's predicted date of March 25th got the next most guesses, and strangely enough more people thought Blizzard would wait until the 8th of April rather than releasing it on April Fool's Day. Also, there are a lot of days missing between 4/1 and 4/8, so while we don't know exactly which date those 11 people in between guessed, odds are there are some days missing in that stretch that didn't get guessed, so if Blizzard decides to release the patch on a non-Tuesday (remember that the PTR went up on Friday night), we might have an interesting outcome.

My official guess was before Noblegarden (which starts on 3/23), so looks like I line right up with what most readers thought: we're all expecting the patch on 3/18. Now it's just time to wait and see when Blizzard decides the patch is ready. Thanks again to Ian for putting this together -- fascinating stuff.

Don't forget that our contest to guess the patch 2.4 release date ends Monday, so this weekend is your last chance to leave your guess for when the patch on the PTR will go on the live realms (in American date format: DD/MM) on our contest post (not on this post). We've got a ton of guesses so far, and definitely enough to cover all the days in between now and next year (although the patch is probably dropping sometime in March), so what we'll do is pick randomly from the people who guess on the correct day to give out the game cards. And if you are super bored this weekend and want to take all the data from that post and plot us a graph of where all the guesses land (so we can come up with fun stuff like an average guess), we could probably think of something nice to do for you too.

Anyway, yes, follow the rules (must be a US resident and over the age of 18, must only enter once), and if you haven't yet, leave your guess on our contest post now. The polls will close, so to speak, on Monday, and of course we'll pick the winners when the patch drops.

Don't forget that we're asking for your guesses on when patch 2.4 will hit the live realms. To enter our contest, just head over to the original post (don't leave a comment on this post, because you can't) and leave a comment with your guess of when the patch will go live using the XX/XX date format (as in, 03/12 for a guess of March 12th).

Personally, I think it will be during March, but later, so Adam's mathematical guess of March 25th is pretty good. Then again, I always predict things to come later than they do, so knowing Blizzard, they might drop it earlier in March. But your actual guess is up to you, of course.

Enter your comment on that post (not this one) before March 3rd, and be a US resident and 18 years of age or older to enter to win a game card if you pick the correct date (or are closest, or are one of four random people who picked the date, if there are more than four). Good luck everybody, and we'll find out the winner when Blizzard finally drops the new content patch!