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Predicting Mists of Pandaria's release date

We know a lot about the previous betas. Everything's been well documented as to their specific start and end dates, and we have a lot of information about the major patches leading up to the new expansion as well. When we take this data and look at it a bit, we can notice some trends that might help us get a better idea of when Mists could release.

The tables below show each of the expansions and the length of the betas, which for the sake of clarity end the day before the expansion went live. We also show the X.0.1/2 patch release dates, which is when the mechanical aspects of the expansion are put in place.

For Mists, we extend the curve outward and can predict (with who knows how much accuracy) when the expansion will release. We've done two predictions. The long prediction covers if you believe Mists will continue the trend and take longer than previous expansions to test. The short prediction applies if you believe Mists won't take as long as Cataclysm did.

In our experience, Mists is very polished and has a lot of pieces already in place. There are obviously visible bugs and other problems, but the content appears to be in a good state.

Please remember to take all this with a grain of salt and don't say we're promising anything -- because we're not. We're just taking a look at these numbers, and it's kind of cool to be able to use them to make predictions.

Beta dates Length
Burning Crusade October 12, 2006 to January 15, 2007 3 months, 3 days (95 days)
Wrath July 7, 2008 to November 12, 2008 4 months, 5 days (128 days)
Cataclysm June 30, 2010 to December 6, 2010 5 months, 6 days (159 days)
Mists (long) *March 20, 2012 to Sept. 27 *6 mo., 7 days (191 days)
Mists (short) *March 20, 2012 to July 20 *4 months (122 days)

Patch Release Days before expansion
Patch 2.0.1 December 5, 2006 1 month, 1 week, 5 days (43 days)
Patch 3.0.2 October 14, 2008 1 month (31 days)
Patch 4.0.1 October 12, 2010 1 month, 3 weeks, 5 days (57 days)
Patch 5.0.1 (long) *August 15, 2012 *1 month, 2 weeks
Patch 5.0.1 (short) *June 6, 2012 *1 month, 2 weeks

*Predicted dates

It's open warfare between Alliance and Horde in Mists of Pandaria, World of Warcraft's next expansion. Jump into five new levels with new talents and class mechanics, try the new monk class, and create a pandaren character to ally with either Horde or Alliance. Look for expansion basics in our Mists FAQ, or dig into our spring press event coverage for more details!

Filed under: Mists of Pandaria

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